Joe Oliver: The Trudeau climate plan runs into reality
Reversing climate change has defined the Trudeau government, generating the incessant virtue signalling and innumerable intrusive initiatives for which, after eight years, it is infamous. But now the entire climate project is staggering from a trifecta of reality checks — missed emission targets, public blowback against the carbon tax and, at long last, growing realization that nothing Canada does will change global temperatures.
In a withering report earlier this month, the federal environment and sustainable development commissioner said he was “extremely concerned about the federal government’s ability to achieve meaningful progress” toward its 2030 emissions goals. Not only won’t it reach its targets, it won’t materially move the dial. In fact, only twice in recent decades did emissions decline significantly — during the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic — though for reasons unrelated to government policy or actions. Weaknesses in Canada’s economic modelling, the commissioner wrote, have included “overly optimistic assumptions, limited analysis of uncertainties, and lack of peer review.” And there’s more. The net-zero plan “did not include a target or expected emission reductions for 95 per cent of its measures” while federal organizations “expected only 43 per cent … to have some direct impact on emissions.” So: the government does not know what it is doing, is not measuring progress and isn’t going to meet its statutory obligation and political commitment. Ouch!
To all but the committed, it has been obvious for some time that the government’s chances of reaching its net-zero targets by 2040 and 2050 were remote. And yet the attempt could cost trillions of dollars and hit ordinary Canadians hard,
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