Loan growth should still be faster than nominal GDP growth over a 5-10-year period:Vishal Goyal

economictimes.indiatimes.com:

Vishal Goyal, Head of Research, UBS Securities, says NBFCs which are purely or mostly doing unsecured lending, are the most impacted as would be some banks which are unsecured and who have just entered unsecured and because their own cost of funding constraints might have taken additional risk. Then there is a category of large banks or top banks. They have historically been doing this business and have been taking less risk, even within unsecured. They would largely be unimpacted from a credit loss point of view. But almost everywhere we would see a slowdown.”

You analyse this space pretty closely and RBI did kind of drop hints in multiple platforms about the way unsecured, especially consumer loans were growing at a very scorching pace and now they have moved. How much capital requirement or slowdown in the growth these names would have to see before they normalise?
One, there is a direct impact on tier one which we estimate would be anywhere between 30 to 50 bps depending upon which bank we are talking about. Second, there is an indirect impact of increasing risk weights on lending to NBFCs which increases the cost of borrowing for NBFCs effectively and therefore, it will also have an indirect slowdown impact on overall consumer loans.

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In the last four-five years, this segment actually has grown at around 27 to 30% CAGR roughly for the system. Now, with increasing lending rates, we feel that they should slow down a bit. Now, if you assume a 5% slowdown of this