Mint Explainer: Why are Indians abroad rushing to stock rice?

livemint.com:

agricultural authorities report that nearly 250,000 ha of paddy fields in 14 districts of Punjab and 150,000 ha across seven districts of Haryana are inundated. If conditions persist, excessive rainfall could potentially result in a reduced crop yield due to additional damage to the paddy fields. The Black Sea grain deal holds critical significance due to the enormous influence Russia and Ukraine exert on the global grain market, contributing over one-third of total exports.

Global food prices had surged to unprecedented levels following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February last year. To safeguard food access for vulnerable nations, the United Nations and Turkey brokered a crucial agreement, known as the Black Sea grain deal, with Russia in July 2022. Under this agreement, Russia permitted grain exports from three major Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea: Odessa, Chornomorsk, and Pivdennyi.

This deal was instrumental in mitigating the rise in global food prices. However, escalating geopolitical tensions led to Russia's withdrawal from the agreement, triggering fresh global concerns, and in turn pushing prices higher. In a minor relief, Russian president Vladimir Putin has promised free grain supplies to six African nations after pulling out of the deal.

The future trajectory of global food prices is a subject of considerable concern. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that Russia's withdrawal from the Black Sea grain deal could potentially push global grain prices up by 10-15%. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, IMF's chief economist, has emphasized the crucial role of the Black Sea grain deal in ensuring continuous flow of grain supplies from Ukraine, thereby alleviating food price pressures.