Mint Primer | Will your grocery bills pinch less?

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. Food price inflation has moderated over the past few months, descending from a high of 11% last October to 6% in January. As the winter harvest begins later this month, will food prices continue to soften going forward? Mint explores.

Food prices rose sharply in October last year (11% year-on-year) due to a spike in vegetable prices following heavy rains. Since then, it has moderated to 8.4% in December and 6% in January. Daily price trends from the consumer affairs ministry show that current prices (as on 2 March) are steep for cooking oils while easing for tomatoes, potatoes and onions.

Mustard and sunflower oil prices are 26% and 29% higher year-on-year, respectively. For some items where prices have cooled, consumers may still feel the pinch. For instance, tur dal is 10% cheaper year-on-year, but consumers are still paying 21% more when compared to 2023 prices.

Also read: Mint Primer | All about the inflation spike: how, why & when Rabi (winter) crops are harvested between March and May. As per the agriculture ministry, farmers have increased area under wheat and gram (chickpeas) by 2% and 3% year-on-year, respectively, but cut mustard plantings by nearly 3%. For wheat, rising temperatures ahead of harvest is a concern because terminal heat stress during grain formation negatively impacts yields.

The met department has forecast above normal temperatures in March with higher-than-usual number of heat wave days. As of now wholesale wheat prices are 10% higher compared to last year. After three consecutive years of poor wheat harvest any significant loss may push India to ease imports.