
Monetary policy in 2026 is all about liquidity
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. When the Monetary Policy Committee meets on 6 February, baseline expectations are that the repo rate will stay at 5.25%, the stance will remain “neutral", and the tone will be carefully balanced. But the real story of India’s monetary policy this year won’t be told through interest rates.
It will be told through liquidity, which has quietly become the most critical macro variable shaping growth, markets, and financial stability. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has already delivered 125 basis points of cuts in 2025, including an outsized 50 bps move last June. The easing cycle has now given way to possibly an extended pause, even as the central bank works aggressively behind the scenes to keep the system flush.
Since December, the RBI has deployed a string of open market operation (OMO) purchases and forex swap auctions, attempting to offset the liquidity drag caused by slow deposit growth, foreign capital outflows, and persistent intervention to stabilize the rupee. This shift is deliberate: with global yields hardening and domestic credit growing faster than deposits, the central bank’s priority has moved decisively from lowering the repo rate further to preserving transmission of earlier cuts. The February policy will reinforce that shift.
Based on current estimates, the RBI may need to conduct ₹2 trillion of OMO purchases over the rest of FY26 and another ₹4 trillion in Q1 FY27 to ensure durable liquidity remains above 1% of net demand and time liabilities (NDTL). The RBI will also continue to rely on variable rate repo (VRR) auctions of varying tenors to keep the overnight call rate aligned with the repo rate. For a central bank intent on maintaining financial conditions supportive
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