

Monetary policy: RBI’s rate and stance decisions are prudent but is it overdoing its liquidity injections?
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s business-as-usual budget for 2026-27, presented on 1 February, was followed less than a week later by an equally pragmatic monetary policy decision, Friday last. In one of the shortest monetary policy announcements to date (just 27 minutes), Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) governor Sanjay Malhotra announced the unanimous decision of its rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to keep the repo rate unchanged and maintain status quo on the stance as well (albeit by a 5:1 majority).
For now, the repo rate—at which RBI infuses liquidity into the system—will remain at 5.25%. The stance will also stay neutral. The decision was not unexpected.
Given the impending revision in two key macroeconomic numbers—gross domestic product (GDP) estimates where the base year is to be brought forward to 2022-23 from 2011-12 at present and consumer price inflation, where the base is to be moved forward to 2024 from 2011-12 now—any other decision might have risked rocking the boat. Central banks are ‘data dependent.’ Decisions on the growth-inflation trade-off depend on underlying macroeconomic fundamentals, for which we in India don’t have the requisite data. For now, that is, given the forthcoming revisions; the new retail inflation number is expected to be announced as early as 12 February and the new GDP series on 28 February.
Clearly, these played on the governor’s mind. He referred to it thrice in the course of the first 10 minutes of his speech. It is also the same reason why the governor gave no guidance about future growth or inflation, saying, “We are deferring the projections for the full year to the April policy as the new GDP series will be released later
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