Several large states in India held elections, and while some of the results were surprising, they provided more stability to the current government. The US presidential election saw a close race but produced a clear winner.
While having a majority helps politically, the posturing by the incumbent has already led some countries (notably BRICS) to brace for trade wars. Inflation and labor concerns have emerged, and snap policy decisions may surprise markets once President Trump takes office in mid-January.
Territorial wars in a few countries continue, putting pressure on global supply chains and energy. While inflation, which had surged globally, showed signs of easing, it remains stubborn at the core, worrying central banks and delaying plans for monetary easing and rate cuts.
While the climate has settled somewhat, 2025 could remain uncertain for capital markets. With over 25% returns on large-cap stocks and over 50% returns on mid and small-cap stocks in India, investors are entering 2025 with elevated valuations.
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