Not a good sign for Harris: Nate Silver says national polling starting to look bad for the Vice President
Nate Silver’s Data Show Key Swing States Become Crucial
Silver’s data shows Trump leading in battleground states North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia, and slightly ahead in Pennsylvania. The 19 electoral votes in Pennsylvania are especially critical, with Silver projecting that a Trump win here would give him a 90.3% chance of securing the presidency. Conversely, Harris would have an 88.4% chance if she holds the Keystone State. Harris’ path to victory depends on securing Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, while Trump aims to win in North Carolina and Georgia, along with flipping Pennsylvania.
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New Forecasts Reflect Tight Race
Though Silver’s national model still gives Harris a narrow 1.9% popular vote lead, other aggregates show a closer race. The New York Times and The Hill show Harris leading by 1% or less, with RealClear Polling marking her lead as just 0.2%. Silver’s models weigh the Electoral College more heavily, where Trump now has a 53.7% chance to win compared to Harris’ 46.0%, showing a slight edge favoring Trump.
Silver’s Battleground State Projections
Silver’s analysis emphasizes the importance of the swing states. For Harris, winning every battleground state except Arizona and Georgia would clinch the presidency, but Silver’s model assigns only a 1.7% chance of this happening. Trump, meanwhile, has a 24.4% likelihood of winning all seven swing states. Silver also highlights a narrow 4.6% possibility of a
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