Morning Coffee: The Citi and Goldman Sachs traders bracing for the night of their lives. KPMG cuts young people whose jobs can be done by AI
If you work in trading in either New York or London, you might want a lie-in this morning. A big day is coming, followed by a bigger night ahead, followed by what might turn into a big week and even month.
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The Financial Times and Bloomberg have been talking to traders ahead of the excitement. They're saying things like, “We will stay as long as we need — if that’s 2 a.m., it’s 2 a.m. If we have to sleep over...we will,” (a Wall Street Veteran), and, «key information can disseminate around midnight to 2am,” (Richard Chambers, a partner running Repo trading at Goldman Sachs in New York).
It is, needless to say, the day of the US election. And tonight is the night the results start to come out.
Deutsche Bank's researchers yesterday issued a report on what happened to markets after the six previous US elections. There was little set pattern. They noted that, „Of the six elections since 2000, the S&P 500 was up in three cases by the end of November, and down in the other three. 10yr Treasury yields were down in four and up in two.“
Vikram Prasad, Citi’s global head of credit trading, informed the FT that there's a „lot of uncertainty,“ and that he will be „glued“ to his screen. It's a marathon, not a sprint etc. though. Chambers says volumes will be higher on Tuesday night and then on Wednesday and then all week as results are finalized. If it sounds exhausting, Chambers told the FT that this is what traders live for: „high volatility and big market moving events.“
And if results aren't finalized this week? Herein lies the rub. Jim Reid, head of Deutsche Bank's macro research, notes this morning that this could be the tightest election ever in the US, bar those of
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