One city-killer 2024 YR4 asteroid, many predictions—Here’s why the impact predictions keep changing
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The asteroid, estimated to be between 40 and 90 metres wide, was briefly ranked as a Level 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale—the highest classification given to any asteroid in years. The scale, introduced in 1999, ranks potential asteroid threats from 0 (no danger) to 10 (certain impact). A Level 3 object, while not an immediate catastrophe, is considered worthy of close scientific monitoring.
Professor Richard Binzel, who developed the scale, explained: “The idea was to be as transparent as possible about what astronomers know. But it’s a bit like being between a rock and a hard place because we want to report what we know to maintain public trust, but we also don’t want to raise any unnecessary anxiety.”
Why the Risk Changed
The dramatic shift in probability numbers isn’t unusual. Scientists refine their calculations as they gather more data. NASA’s latest estimates were based on additional observations made by ground-based telescopes overnight on 19-20 February, allowing astronomers to better understand 2024 YR4’s orbit.
Binzel compared the challenge to tracking a baseball mid-flight: “If you think of it like a baseball game, the amount of information we have to track this asteroid is like trying to figure out where a fly ball will land at the crack of the bat.”
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