OPEC+ will buckle under pressure from Trump who has history of bashing the oil cartel
Donald Trump has a decades-long history of bashing the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, starting with his 1987 book Trump: The Art of the Deal where he blamed the group for cripplingly high energy costs. Unsurprisingly, it only took him 72 hours after being sworn in to take aim at the cartel.
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Speaking at the World Economic Forum on Jan. 23, he said he’d ask Saudi Arabia and its allies to “bring down the cost of oil.”
The cartel’s semi-public initial reaction to Trump’s comments — leaking a photo of several OPEC+ ministers meeting in Riyadh as if it was a show of unity — was comical; the gathering included top oil officials from the United Arab Emirates and Iraq, the two countries that have flouted production limits the most. In private, the response from OPEC+ is dismissive, but also guarded; no one wants to cross Trump. But behind closed doors, there’s been a flurry of meetings and consultations among the member states. I don’t believe OPEC+ can resist the pressure forever.
By happy coincidence, the cartel doesn’t need to lose face. Pleasing Trump could be presented simply as following the existing plan. As it happens, the group already intends to start increasing oil output from April in monthly instalments that will continue until late 2026. True, very few in the market thought OPEC+
