PM Modi sets ambitious India economic goals for probable third term

livemint.com:

Modi has highlighted economic growth as one of his biggest achievements in election rallies and has "guaranteed" making the economy the third largest in the world from fifth now if he wins a third term in a row as polls predict. He has already asked officials to finalise plans by around May to expand the economy to $6.69 trillion in nominal terms by 2030, from around $3.51 trillion currently, according to the October document.

Though short on concrete details of how to achieve that, it has been a basis for officials' meetings. When he took office for a second term five years ago, Modi promised to take the economy to $5 trillion by the current fiscal year, but partly due to COVID-19 related disruptions, meeting that target is virtually impossible now.

For the next six years, Modi's goal is to raise per capita income to $4,418 from around $2,500, the document says, without specifying the spending or reforms needed to achieve that. Modi's office and the finance ministry did not reply to requests seeking comment.

Independent economist Saugata Bhattacharya said doubling the economy by the end of the decade would be a "very difficult feat" requiring 6%-6.5% growth for the next seven years along with inflation of 4.5%. The economy is, however, expected to have grown by around 8% in the last fiscal year ended March 31, the fastest among major countries, on the back of strong manufacturing and construction activity driven by government spending.

A former senior finance ministry official, Subhash Chandra Garg, said growth projections like those in the document are mostly based on "backward arithmetical calculations" and lack any "reform and investment plan". "Usually such mental gymnastics based on arithmetic calculations and