Posthaste: How Alberta is on track to become a nation-beater again

financialpost.com:

Alberta has taken its share of knocks lately.

A catastrophic water main rupture has put Calgary on water restrictions for weeks and crews are scrambling to get the line running before the Stampede begins July 5.

The turmoil comes amid an economy that has fallen short of expectations.

Normally a nation beater, Alberta ranked in the middle of the pack in 2023 with growth in gross domestic product at 1.5 per cent, dragged down by declines in construction and agriculture and a weaker-than-expected performance by the energy sector.

But brighter days are ahead, economists predict.

Oil production is on track for its strongest year since 2018 now that the Trans Mountain Pipeline extension has been completed, says TD Economics in its provincial forecast.

“Our forecast for a 300k/bpd increase in Alberta’s oil supply growth is a major contributing factor to Canada’s expected success as a global swing producer this year,” said the report.

The extra capacity has also boosted the price of Alberta oil, Western Canadian Select, and TD’s forecast of just US$13 a barrel below West Texas Intermediate‘s US$80 could boost the province’s revenue beyond projections.

TD expects Alberta will return to the upper end of the provincial growth chart with 1.9 per cent real GDP growth this year and 1.9 per cent next.

Deloitte Canada’s forecast is even more optimistic.

“The Alberta economy is benefiting from a population surge as Canadians from other provinces flock to Wild Rose Country is search of a lower cost of living,” said Deloitte in its provincial forecast.

“That and the opening of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion will keep Alberta growing above the national average, with GDP gaining 1.5 per cent this year and 3.3 per cent next year.”

Sask