Potential 'Super El Nino' in 2024 and its implications for India's monsoon
El Nino from March to May 2024, with a 1 in 3 chance of it being «historically strong» (Super El Nino).
El Nino, characterized by warmer Pacific Ocean waters near South America, significantly influences global weather patterns, impacting food production, water resources, and overall well-being.
The likelihood of a robust El Nino next year stands at 75%-80%, indicating that equatorial sea surface temperatures could be at least 1.5°C higher than average. There is also a 30% chance that temperatures may surpass 2°C, resembling the historically strong El Nino events of 1997-98 and 2015-16, which caused extreme temperatures, droughts, and floods worldwide.
In North America, a strong El Nino typically correlates with drier and warmer conditions in northern regions, while the southern US experiences wetter weather and slightly below-average temperatures in winter.
For India, El Nino is often linked to weakened Monsoon winds and dry weather, potentially resulting in reduced rainfall during the monsoon season.
The prospect of a Super El Nino raises concerns about disrupting typical weather patterns in India, leading to unusual and extreme weather events, including heavy rainfall, flooding, and extended dry spells.
It's observed that El Nino's impact is generally less pronounced in southern India compared to the northern regions. Historically, more than half of El Nino years have caused droughts during the Monsoon, with all-India rainfall falling below 90% of the long-period average.
The intensity of this weather phenomenon depends on complex oceanic and atmospheric conditions, and the NOAA plans to update its predictions in November based on the latest data.
