Price rise is a pet peeve for voters. Can it shape poll results, too?
Inflation, although not the only factor influencing voter behaviour, has historically triggered considerable concern ahead of elections—whether it was the skyrocketing onion prices before the 1998 polls or the double-digit inflation prior to 2014. The recent price pinch has forced the current government, too, to announce measures such as the reduction in petrol and diesel prices. “If you see the nature of inflation shocks in India, they tend to be more on the supply side, which is food and fuel, and the levers to contain those happen to be in the hands of the governments," said Renu Kohli, senior fellow at Centre for Social and Economic Progress (CSEP).
Several factors such as drought, crude oil prices, global commodity prices, and food production often influence inflation. The Modi government initially benefited from the collapse in crude oil prices, which kept inflationary pressures low during his first term. However, the second term saw inflation consistently exceed the medium-term target of 4% due to disruptions caused by the pandemic, volatility in food prices, and high commodity prices, among others.
Food, in particular, has been a pain point. In six of the 10 fiscal years under the BJP’s regime, average food inflation exceeded the headline inflation rate. This is crucial as food accounts for nearly 46% of the consumer price index (CPI) basket.
A Mint analysis shows that food inflation’s contribution to overall monthly inflation was more than 50%—well beyond its designated weight—over one-third of the time since Modi took office. Inflation has not only been rising in the official data but in the public’s mind too, despite the government, time and again, claiming success. It has nearly halved from 10.1% in 2012-13
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