Putin thinks time is on his side. Sadly he may be right, says Alexander Gabuev

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. BACK IN THE White House, President Donald Trump says that he will end the war in Ukraine—although not in a day, as he used to promise. But there is a problem: Vladimir Putin appears to be in no hurry to make concessions and accept a deal that is not on his terms.

With the third anniversary of his invasion approaching, the Russian president appears to believe that time is on his side and that he has the advantage over both Ukraine and its Western backers. It is true that Mr Putin’s approach, during a quarter of a century in power, has been to project implacable confidence, regardless of the objective reality. That makes it hard to read his mind, especially as the nature of decision-making inside the Kremlin has grown ever more opaque.

Still, news brought to him from the battlefield must be fuelling a sense of optimism. At the front, Russia has momentum, massing forces around the strategic town of Pokrovsk while overstretched Ukrainian lines are starting to buckle. Ukraine is hugely unsure about Mr Trump’s future political and material support—and Europe’s.

Even if the political will is there, the West’s defence-industrial base will struggle to feed Ukraine with weaponry at levels maintained till now. Meanwhile, at home, President Volodymyr Zelensky’s political authority looks fragile. His government is starting to look for some kind of time-out in the fighting.

By contrast, Russia’s forces show little sign yet of running out of offensive steam. True, what little extra land Russia has seized in eastern Ukraine in the past year has come at the cost of huge casualties. The current burn rate of manpower cannot continue forever.