Rathin Roy: Why the budget lacks the coherence needed to tackle India’s real economic challenges
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. This budget has been commendably prudent and tries to alleviate the harassment that marks India’s exploitative and litigious tax system. It does little else.
This is because the government is severely fiscally-constrained and lacks a coherent economic narrative. The structural fiscal constraint: The government of India has been shrinking. While its total expenditure-to-GDP ratio was 12.8% in 2016-17 and will be 13.6% in 2026-27, this 0.8-percentage-point increase exactly matches the increase in its fiscal deficit during that period.
The covid jump in expenditure (and deficits) and subsequent correction masks this long-term trend. Despite reasonable growth, there has been no tax buoyancy. Non-tax revenue is largely driven by large dividends paid by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), a fiscal feature unheard of in any serious country.
Disinvestment has been an utter failure. Fiscal prudence is therefore a necessity, not an unconstrained policy choice. The move to target debt rather than an annual fiscal deficit is just optics.
Indian public debt is overwhelmingly rupee-denominated. It transfers resources from Indians to their government and is hence not a ‘burden’ equivalent to private debt (foreign debt is a different matter). The debt-to-GDP ratio is a confusing metric—debt is a stock and GDP a flow, so tracking marginal changes in the debt-to-GDP ratio makes little analytical sense.
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