With China and America in an AI-catapulted space race, the world needs a global treaty on AI warfare

India opened its space sector to private players at a time of covid paralysis. Since then, some progress has indeed been made. Poised for a breathtaking leap into space, however, might be China.In the last week of December, Beijing notified the UN’s International Telecom Union of its plan to put over 200,000 satellites in orbit within a decade.

Its game, it seems, is to saturate the whole planet with satcom coverage and make US-based SpaceX’s Starlink constellation of almost 10,000 low-earth orbiters look skeletal. Clearly, artificial intelligence (AI) is not the only tech race China is in a hurry to win. From the viewpoint of global geo-rivalry, satcom and AI are twin frontiers.

Over in the US, AI startup Anthropic is reported to have had a run-in with the Pentagon over curbs on the use of its Claude AI tools, which other reports suggest were used by US forces for a regime-switch in Venezuela. AI paired with satcom can enable armed action—think of AI-run drone swarms armed with live data feeds across the globe—that might tip the balance of power one way or another. This may also explain why Elon Musk’s SpaceX snapped up xAI, his AI venture.

We can expect a blitz of space launches by archrivals America and China, one that grabs almost all low-earth orbits before others get a chance. How this shapes up matters to the world, of course, but especially to a space power like India. As defence minister Rajnath Singh said in the context of advanced technologies, “We must stay ahead of the curve.” Is China bluffing? Without a reusable rocket like SpaceX’s fabled Falcon 9, which places satellites in orbit and returns home, Beijing’s plan seems to stretch credibility.