
RBI likely to hold rates as war-driven risks cloud inflation and growth outlook
As the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) heads into its first policy decision of the new financial year on 8 April, a rate pause is widely expected even as a rapidly shifting macro landscape triggered by the West Asia war may force a shift in its outlook.A Mint poll of 10 economists and market participants points to rising inflation risks and a weakening growth outlook, with all expecting the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to hold rates while signalling a more cautious policy stance.In 2025, the RBI had cumulatively cut the repo rate—the rate at which it lends short-term funds to banks—by 125 basis points (bps), with the last cut of 25 bps in December to 5.25%.“We do expect RBI to hold onto the repo rate and stance,” said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda. The MPC’s stance has remained neutral since June 2025.“The tone will be cautious,” Sabnavis added.
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