Record winter warmth cuts gas consumption
warmest winter on record, with the unusual warmth concentrated around the Atlantic Basin, which has produced an enormous surplus of gas and slump in prices since October.
Surface temperatures on land were +2.65°C above the 20th century average between December and February, according to data compiled by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Record warmth in the winter of 2023/24 beat previous highs of +2.44°C in 2019/2020 and +2.61°C in 2015/16 — also winters characterised by surplus inventories and slump in gas prices.
Global warming, strong El Nino conditions in the Pacific, a strongly positive North Atlantic Oscillation, and the solar activity cycle moving towards its 11-year peak, all contributed to exceptional warmth this winter.
NORTH AMERICA
Europe has received the most attention because of the regional gas market's disruption following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but the most abnormal weather occurred in North America.
Temperatures across North America were +3.43°C above the long-run average between December and February («Climate at a glance», National Centers for Environmental Information, March 2024). North America experienced record warm anomalies in both December (+4.66°C) and February (+3.59°C) slashing heating demand for both gas and gas-fired electricity.
U.S. gas inventories started the heating season just 64 billion cubic feet (bcf) (+2% or +0.24 standard deviations) above the prior 10-year seasonal average
