Rahul Singh, CIO, Tata Asset Management, says the market has shifted away from thematic sector-based movements to stock-specific movements now and he expects that even while the markets remain sideways, the nature of the market will be very different and it will be a very bottom-up stock selection rather than the sectoral swings we saw in the last 24 months.
So Singh says we should expect a slightly narrower market focused more on valuation and more stock specific. Between November 2021 and March 2023, there were 17-18 months of a very similar phase and it can happen again.
What is your view on the market? We know the reasons for the correction which are basically valuation and earnings and the FII outflows, but the question is has all of that been factored in by the market and from here on do we expect a recovery or do you expect this the sideways move to be the nature of the market for the next couple of months?
Rahul Singh: The market would be watching the earnings.
A lot of macro factors like strong dollar or China recovery are also playing a role in Indian FII outflows and the market going sideways, but the most important is the earnings growth rate and that also has not been going as per the trajectory which we had thought at the beginning of the year.
At the beginning of the year, Nifty 50 EPS growth was likely to be 12%, now we are down to 6% for this year.
So, while the next year forecast is 16% growth back again, as we come closer to March, a real hard assessment of where the FY26 Nifty EPS growth is going to land up is going to become extremely critical and till that time, it could be just wait and watch, and very stock specific move. The other broader point is that the market has shifted away from thematic
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