Retail inflation likely inched up to 3.1% in February: Mint poll

India's retail inflation under the new series is expected to rise to 3.1% in February from 2.8% in January, driven by increases in prices of some food items from a year ago, according to a Mint poll of 18 economists.India’s statistics ministry had released a ‘back series' for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) using the new base year of 2024. Economists in the poll expect the second print of the CPI under the new rebased series to land in the range of 2.8-3.4%.

The official data is scheduled for release on 12 March.“We expect a further climb in headline CPI inflation as the scale of disinflation in food (including vegetables, pulses, etc.) continues to ease, while precious metal price pressures remain firm,” said Radhika Rao, economist at DBS Bank.Food and beverages continue to dominate the overall inflation basket, though their share has been reduced from 45.9% in the previous 2012 base year to 36.8% in the new 2024 base year series. This is the sharpest recalibration among all categories, which experts say now better reflects actual consumer spending patterns.If the poll's median projections prove accurate, this will bring inflation closer to the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) medium-term target of 4%, marking the end of the ultra-low inflation seen last year under the old series.However, experts say a more immediate concern for policymakers is the conflict in West Asia.

The Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of global oil supply passes, has seen traffic come to a halt following the conflict, sending crude prices briefly past $100 per barrel this week. India, which imports over 80% of its fuel needs, with roughly a third coming via this route, now faces both a supply squeeze and rising crude costs.Retail