Rupee plunges to new low, some see signs of undervaluation against EM peers

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories.The rupee closed at a record low of 95.29 on Tuesday as foreign institutional investors (FIIs) continued to sell and crude prices stayed above $100 per barrel. Costlier oil is pushing up India’s import bill, while weak foreign inflows are limiting any recovery, said market participants.The rupee will see a meaningful recovery only once Brent crude falls below $100 and capital flows turn supportive again, market experts said, adding that against some emerging market peers, the rupee is beginning to look undervalued.Yet, the overall bias remains weak, with the rupee consistently facing selling pressure on rebounds.“In the near term, 94.70 is likely to act as resistance, while 95.50 is seen as immediate support, with markets closely tracking US non-farm payrolls and unemployment data this week for further direction," said Jateen Trivedi, vice-president and research analyst for commodity and currency at LKP Securities.Over the past year, the rupee has weakened by nearly 11%, with over 4% of that decline coming since the war broke out.Even as earnings improve and nominal growth normalizes, the rupee remains under pressure from higher crude prices this year and continued FPI selling after last year's trade tensions, said Harsh Gupta Madhusudan, fund manager, PIPE, Ionic Asset.The last one to two years have been the perfect storm for India with gold imports remaining strong, India not having any clear AI play, and post-2024 elections macro tightness filtering through with a lag, which is now being reversed.