Sandeep Tandon sees pullback in equity and currency market; expects short-term rebound
«The worry is that if DXY goes back to 121 and that is the one big risk I want to highlight, it is a high probability that it can play out. And if it plays out, that can be a longer-term top also,» says Sandeep Tandon, CIO, Quant Mutual Fund.
It is not turning out to be a great year so far. Will it be a great year by the time it ends?
Sandeep Tandon: So, if you ask me purely from a numbers perspective can CY25 be higher than CY24, December 2024, maybe the answer could be yes globally. But what is very important for us to understand, this year is not about market or market return.
This year, what you have to watch is only about currency and global yields. And if you really look at today, we have been very early to talk about perceived risk on the dollar index, the dollar index has potential to rally and right from September if you are seeing globally, it is not just about India, in fact a bit late, September onwards currency has started depreciating and DXY is now closer to 109.
The worry is that if DXY goes back to 121 and that is the one big risk I want to highlight, it is a high probability that it can play out. And if it plays out, that can be a longer-term top also. But for them, we should not worry about the longer-term top, but from a very medium-term perspective, that is the big worry. But if you really look at from a very short-term perspective, rupee has depreciated sharply and so is the case the global currency.
It is not only in isolation we are talking about. So, we have to look at the collective.
