Saurabh Mukherjea on the positive as well as negative triggers lying ahead of Indian market

economictimes.indiatimes.com:

Saurabh Mukherjea, Founder, Marcellus Investment Managers, says “the positive trigger is the China play because the scale of China's unwind is such that I find it hard to believe that it will not trigger broader connections in commodity prices and then on to on to inflationary numbers both for America and for India. The negative one in India's case is that we have got so many elections ahead of us. We got five assembly elections through the winter and then obviously the big one in the summer.”

What could be the trigger now for the market? Earnings are good. Inflation is benign. Macro will keep on getting ups and downs here but in general is steady. Flows have been decent. The outlook by corporate India is not that bad. So for markets to move higher, what is next?
If I have to pick one positive trigger and one negative trigger, the positive trigger is the China play because the scale of China's unwind is such that I find it hard to believe that it will not trigger broader connections in commodity prices and then on to on to inflationary numbers both for America and for India.

So, that is the positive trigger to look out for; a Chinese unwinding leading to deflationary impulses the world over which then leads to abatement of concerns around interest rates.

The negative one in India's case is that we have got so many elections ahead of us. We got five assembly elections through the winter and then obviously the big one in the summer. The foreign investors are asking us questions around the election piece and it is what it is.

We will have to deal with that. I keep emphasising to foreign investors that ours is a robust democracy and we go through elections, every 12 months we go to some sort of major elections and all. But