Strikes in Iran and Lebanon raise risk of escalation, but all-out war is not inevitable
Gaza Strip, Israel has fought a parallel, slower-paced conflict with Hamas' allies across the Middle East in which all sides have risked major escalation but ultimately avoided dragging the region into a bigger, multi-front war.
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The attacks on two of Israel's leading foes Tuesday and Wednesday have created one of the biggest challenges to that equilibrium since the fighting began in October.
Israel's Tuesday night strike on Fuad Shukr, a senior Hezbollah commander in Beirut, was the first time during this war that Israel has targeted such an influential Hezbollah leader in Lebanon's capital. Hours later, the killing in Iran of Hamas' political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, was considered the most brazen breach of Iran's defenses since October.
Taken together, the seniority of the targets, the sensitive location of the strikes and their near simultaneity were viewed as a particularly provocative escalation that has left the region fearing an even bigger response from Iran and its regional proxies, including Hezbollah, the Houthis in Yemen and militias in Iraq. The scale of that reaction could determine whether the low-level regional battle between Israel and the Iranian alliance tips into a full-scale, all-out conflict.
Some analysts said the killing of Haniyeh, Hamas' top negotiator, also made a cease-fire deal in Gaza less likely in the immediate
