
Strong Q4 behind, India's top private banks flag caution ahead in FY27 as Iran war roils SME, export sectors
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories.India's top private lenders, led by HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank, reported strong growth numbers in the quarter just gone by but have turned cautious on business prospects in fiscal 2027 as the West Asia war and consequent economic disruptions stoke uncertainty.While domestic demand trends have been robust so far, war-related tensions cloud visibility on future growth and lending, especially to small and medium enterprises and export-oriented companies.HDFC Bank’s loans grew 12% on year to ₹29.6 trillion as at the end of March 2026, whereas deposits were 14% higher at ₹31 trillion. On its post-earnings media call Saturday, managing director and CEO Sashidhar Jagdishan stated that it would be difficult to predict the future pace of growth given the war even though expansion is expected to continue.“The trajectory is the right path in terms of positive momentum and we shall calibrate that as we get more clarity from the macro indicators over a period of time,” Jagdishan said, adding that so far the impact from the geo-political situation has been minimal.Jagdishan said bank clients have seen a certain level of disruption but what is really encouraging is their resilience.
Some MSME segments, said Jagdishan, may face challenges and temporary stress however, but most of the impact should “play out in the first quarter”.A ceasefire between US and Iran has rekindled hopes among investors of an end to a conflict that started late February. Still, uncertainties persist around the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow conduit through which about one-fifth of global oil supply passes.Experts have cautioned that supply chain disruption on account of the war will have an impact on several
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