What is the chancellor going to do when figures charting Britain’s economic growth in February show the recovery from the pandemic was almost at a standstill before the invasion of Ukraine had started?
Shopping and eating out became popular again after the restrictions put in place to deal with the Omicron outbreak were eased. Bookings at arts and entertainment venues increased. And the banking, insurance, legal and accounting sectors experienced another month of solid expansion, no doubt allowing City firms to repeat in 2022 the stellar bonuses paid to staff last year.
However, manufacturing shrank and so too did the wider production sector as energy-hungry businesses cut back on their use of gas and electricity to leave GDP only 0.1% higher in February.
Consumers were also beginning to feel the pinch from rising heating bills. The better-off might have ventured out to restaurants or to catch a show, but separate figures from the Bank of England show many families were ramping up their borrowing on credit cards in February just to keep their heads above water.
Trade with Europe increased modestly month on month, which some analysts said was a welcome sign of a return to more normal times post-Brexit.
That was not the view of the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC), which said a broader view of imports and exports with EU countries showed UK firms continued to struggle with the red tape left in place following the decision to quit the EU single market and customs union.
Clearly, queues of lorries at Dover, some with rotting meat and vegetables on board, has nothing to do with the cost of living crisis or the war in Ukraine and everything to do with the prime minister’s decision to push for a hard Brexit.
Rishi Sunak, meanwhile,
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