Has Rishi Sunak’s week from hell saved his neighbour in No 10? Until recently the chancellor was seen as the safest choice to replace Boris Johnson if MPs decided the prime minister’s position was untenable.
The chancellor had positioned himself as the antidote to chaos in Downing Street, using some of Johnson’s most difficult moments to force through his favoured policies such as the national insurance rise.
But now he has lost his moral high ground after being given a fixed-penalty notice along with the prime minister for attending a lockdown birthday party.
Much has changed since “red wall” Tory MPs met in January to launch “the pork pie plot” to submit letters of no-confidence in Johnson’s leadership amid almost daily revelations about lockdown-breaching parties in Downing Street.
There was a consensus among more experienced MPs that Johnson should only be challenged when a vote of no confidence could be sure to succeed – meaning a significant number held off sending in letters to the 1922 Committee. The moment to send the letters would be when Johnson was given the penalty, they said.
Some still believe more letters could yet go in now fixed-penalty notices have been issued. One predicted Sunak would decide his position was untenable and resign – which could put pressure on the prime minister to do the same.
Sunak apologised “unreservedly” after receiving the notice, and appeared to put to rest any notions of stepping down by declaring he was “focused on delivering for the British people at this challenging time”.
But in the immediate aftermath of the penalties, most MPs are pausing for thought. One senior MP, a critic of Johnson, said they were close to despair at their colleagues. Another admitted that “timing has been
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