Tata Steel is likely to see robust growth in profitability in the first quarter ended June 2024, but the bottomline may decline.
Net profit for the June quarter may increase anywhere between 57-209% year-on-year, according to estimates from five brokerages.
While YES Securities has the least estimate for PAT growth of 57% at Rs 998 crore, Equirus Securities estimates PAT growth to be 209% to Rs 2,465 crore.
Revenues for the reporting April-June 2024 period, however, may fall 6% year-on-year, according to an average estimate of five brokerages.\
Here's what analysts expect from Tata Steel Q1:
Equirus Securities
We expect India steel deliveries to increase by 4.8% YoY to 5.03mt (-7.2% QoQ) while standalone realisations to remain flat QoQ as price hikes in long products were offset by weakness in other products. We expect India EBITDA/t to increase by 6.8% QoQ to Rs 15,839./t driven by lower coking coal costs.
We expect Europe to report an EBITDA loss of $30/t as losses in UK operations are likely to continue and offset the positive contribution from Netherland operations.
Kotak Equities
We estimate standalone steel realizations to increase by 0.3% QoQ (-6.4% YoY) on account of product mix. We expect standalone volumes to increase by 3.5% YoY (-8.5% QoQ) to 4.96 mn tons. India EBITDA/ton to decrease by 9% QoQ (-3.1% YoY) to Rs13,485/ton mainly led by operating deleverage on a sequential basis.
We estimate Europe to report an EBITDA loss of $29/ton (-$39/ton in 4QFY24) led by higher costs in UK end-of-life