Thanksgiving and Black Friday: Divergent signals for Indian stock market?
Thanksgiving and Black Friday, widely regarded as indicators of consumer sentiment and economic vitality, the BSE Sensex — India's benchmark stock index — reflects a mixed reaction to these events over the years. While Thanksgiving Day has shown a tendency to uplift Indian equities, Black Friday often tells a different story, marked by heightened volatility and caution.
Thanksgiving day: a positive bias
<div data-placement=«Mid Article Thumbnails» data-target_type=«mix» data-mode=«thumbnails-mid» style=«min-height:400px; margin-bottom:12px;» class=«wdt-taboola» id=«taboola-mid-article-thumbnails-115717633»>Thanksgiving day, which falls on the fourth Thursday in November every year, has historically been a favorable occasion for the Sensex, with an average percentage gain of 0.44% for the benchmark index over the past six years, from 2018 to 2023.
Historical data reveals that the BSE Sensex has mostly posted gains on Thanksgiving Day, with four out of six years showing positive returns from 2018 to 2023. The best performance occurred on November 24, 2022, with the Sensex climbing 1.24%, driven by optimism over global economic recovery and positive cues from US markets. In contrast, November 22, 2018, saw a decline of 0.62%, as global trade tensions weighed on investor sentiment.
This data aligns with historical studies showing that Thanksgiving week boosts market sentiment globally, likely fueled by optimism in US consumer spending and year-end rally expectations.
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