The choice between a poorer today and a hotter tomorrow
it is not happening—replacing old grids and installing new technology is just too expensive for developing countries. To reach net-zero emissions by 2050, the International Energy Agency, an official forecaster, reckons developing countries would have to spend at least $300bn on renewable grids until 2030, five times their current outgoings. Thus there is no way round the missing finance.
And as the meagre progress in Paris demonstrates, an enormous increase in aid spending is unlikely. After the conference, donor countries and the World Bank plan to suspend more repayments in the event of extreme-weather disasters, and have recycled from rich countries a modest amount of special drawing rights, a financial instrument the imf allocates to the balance-sheet of every country’s central bank. Where some of the promised finance will come from has yet to be revealed, as have the mechanics of spending it.
More ambitious proposals came from African politicians. They included ideas for global taxes and a new international financial institution, as Mr Ruto put it, “not hostage to its shareholders". They were treated as outlandish.
“Taxed by whom? And for whom?" demanded Mr Macron. Even a worldwide tax on shipping, which Mr Macron supports, faces years of political wrangling. “We will forget all about it in a few months," sighed a finance minister.
“There is a clash between the global good and the national interest," Mr Ruto said. “And the national interest always wins." This produces two bleak trade-offs. The first concerns priorities for national governments.
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