
The economy could be weakening. Watch these 4 indicators to know.
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. Following the re-election of President Donald Trump last November, there was a growing sense of optimism regarding the outlook for the economy and financial markets in 2025.
A pro-business president working on policies that included reduced regulation, lower taxes, energy security, reshoring, and possible peace between Russia and Ukraine all appeared to represent positive tailwinds for financial markets this year. Tariffs were clearly on the agenda, but it appeared that they might be used mainly as a negotiating tool.
The impact of tariffs is showing up in survey data and the Federal Reserve recently stated “uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased." Fast forward a few weeks and policies from Trump 2.0 have led to growing confusion and uncertainty among both consumers and businesses. The impact is increasingly showing up in survey data and in the statement associated with the most recent Federal Reserve meeting last week, the Federal Open Market Committee stated that “uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased." There is an old saying in economics, “watch what I say and not what I do." While sentiment surveys have turned weaker, for now, consumers continue to spend and support moderate growth in the economy.
However, if the president’s tariff policy continues to create uncertainty, it may not take much for consumer spending to pull back which could lead to a slowdown in the months ahead. At this pivotal time, it’s especially important for financial advisors to keep an eye on economic data.
Here I provide an overview of where things stand and then suggest four important indicators advisors should follow. Consumer strength. To get a better sense of where the
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