The Gulf’s boundless ambition to change the world
our Briefing explains, these shifts begin a new chapter in the Middle East marked by fresh opportunities and new dangers. The region’s leaders are testing ideas that have caught on in much of the world, including embracing autocratic pragmatism as a substitute for democracy, and multipolar diplomacy instead of the post-1945 American-led order. The Middle East is also a place where threats that will menace the world in the 2030s may play out early, including nuclear proliferation, extreme weather and even greater inequality, as weak countries fall further behind.
Many occupants of the White House have left office wishing they could forget all about the Middle East. But whether you run a superpower or a small business, it matters as much as ever. Although it has only 6% of the world’s people, it has a chokehold on the global economy.
As the lowest-cost oil producer, its share of crude exports is 46% and rising. Its share of exports of liquefied natural gas, in great demand since Russia’s pipelines to Europe shut down, is 30% and going up, too. Thanks to its location, 30% of all container trade and 16% of air cargo passes through the region.
With $3trn of assets, its sovereign-wealth funds are among the world’s largest. Its wars and disorder often spill across borders; its refugees affect politics as far away as Europe. The past two decades have been miserable in the Middle East.
Democratic projects ended in failure and bloodshed, in Iraq after the American-led invasion of 2003 and in several countries after the Arab spring in 2011. Islamic State sought to kill its way to creating a caliphate, while in Syria Bashar al-Assad doused his own people in chlorine and nerve agents. Yet now, as the fighting ebbs, three big changes
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