The Lindy effect and how it presents itself in Web3
If you ask people if they think that companies that have been around for many decades (even more than a hundred years) versus a startup would have a better chance of making it through hard economic times like a recession, most people would say the older company has the edge.
Likewise in the crypto sphere, the longer that Bitcoin, Ethereum or other altcoins grow and persist, people say it’s been around a while, and so it begins to enter the mainstream and be thought of as something that will last a while.
The Lindy effect is a term used to denote the increased likelihood of survival of an older venture (or even in crypto) that has done much work over time versus a new untested one. It came from the Lindy delicatessen in New York City and was subsequently popularized by people like author Nassim Nicholas Taleb, and a 1964 New Yorker article entitled Lindy’s Law.
The Lindy effect argument is that a product, company, service, fashion, fad, technology and others build up their tradition and culture over time, which helps to convince their management, employees, fans and supporters to stick together and not quit in the face of adversity. It has also been used to justify the future success or failure of comedians, published books and even Bitcoin and crypto.
However, the Lindy effect is not an excuse to avoid adapting to changes in the business environment, technology and social norms. The world is littered with old companies like Sears, Firestone, Pan Am, McDonnell Douglas, Credit Suisse, Barclays Bank and others that had a long successful history, but did not make it to the present. Using the Lindy effect in a hubris manner with no realistic assessment of the threats only benefits the ego of the company.
Take for example
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