



The murky economics of the data-centre investment boom
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. THIS SPRING McKinsey made what seemed to be an extraordinarily bullish forecast of capital spending on the chips, data centres and energy to produce artificial intelligence (AI): $5.2trn worldwide in the next five years. Less than six months on, the consultancy is considering upping that estimate.
Announcements in America suggest investing in generative-AI infrastructure is reaching fever pitch. Such expenditure, accentuated by staggering data-centre deals unveiled by firms such as OpenAI, Nvidia and Oracle, is aimed at increasing the computing power its protagonists believe is needed to supply generative AI. But demand—especially the revenue-yielding sort—does not yet match the hype.
Though consumers’ use of chatbots is rising, McKinsey has found that the success rate of AI pilot projects in firms it has canvassed is less than 15%, says Pankaj Sachdeva, a partner at the firm. He predicts an era of “lumpiness" between supply and demand that could last for years. The strength of demand for generative AI may be the most critical factor determining whether or not this infrastructure boom ends in a bust.
But three novel aspects of the data-centre building frenzy add to the uncertainty: the centres’ remote locations, the non-public firms financing them and the weak credit quality of some borrowers. This trifecta reminds some sceptics of the last great infrastructure debacle: the telecoms boom of the late 1990s. Yet plenty of others are holding their noses and diving in.
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