The perils of a Le Pen presidency

livemint.com:

Marine. Since taking over the National Front in 2011, rebranding it the National Rally (RN), she has converted a pariah into a party preparing to govern. Her protégé, the 28-year-old Jordan Bardella—now party president—is the only politician to feature in the top 50 favourite French personalities, alongside football stars and ageing rock legends.

Over 60% of the French now see the RN as a political party like any other. Nearly two-thirds of voters think it can win office, up from 40% in 2018. A plurality of the French no longer fear that it is a “danger for democracy".

The next French presidential election is not until 2027. Much could yet thwart a Le Pen victory, not least a credible successor to Emmanuel Macron, who is barred by the constitution from running for a third consecutive term. He has begun to promote a new generation, among them the 34-year-old prime minister, Gabriel Attal.

One of his former prime ministers, Edouard Philippe, is among those readying themselves for a bid. Yet Ms Le Pen will be a formidable opponent. In 2022 she won the backing of nearly 42% of voters; next time she will do better.

It is, therefore, past time to consider how much a Le Pen presidency would change France and Europe. France is a country unlike any other. It is nuclear-armed, highly centralised and concentrates unusual powers in the hands of a single person—including the ability to dissolve parliament, name and fire the prime minister, and appoint the head of the armed forces, state-owned firms, institutions and the broadcasting authority.