The price Britain paid for lockdown was colossal. Was there an alternative?
T he UK economy is flatlining and has been for the best part of a year. Recovery after the deep slump of 2020 has petered out. Higher inflation, higher interest rates and higher taxes are all exacting a toll.
Technically, the strict definition of a recession has not been met because the economy has yet to contract for two successive quarters. But official estimates showing zero growth in the final three months of 2022 meant it was a mighty close thing. With the full impact of higher borrowing costs yet to be felt, neither the chancellor nor the governor of the Bank of England would bet against a recession at some point this year.
Britain is the one G7 country where activity is still to return to its pre-pandemic levels and on current trends it will be some time before it does. Growth has not exactly been stellar anywhere else in the developed world either but the UK’s performance has been especially poor. By early 2025, the last possible moment when a general election could be held, the economy will probably still be smaller than it was in late 2019.
Some will wonder what the fuss is all about. There is a strong de-growth community in the UK that says the aim of policy should not be ever-higher levels of growth, but a steady-state economy that ceases to put as much pressure on the carrying capacity of the planet.
Well, for the past three years the UK has been through a process of de-growth. The 16-year period of constant and robust expansion from 1992 to 2008 is now a distant memory. To all intents and purposes the economy has arrived at a steady state. But it would be stretching the truth to say that the country is a happier place because of it. The number of adults rating their satisfaction with life as very high is well
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