Top 5 things to watch in markets in the week ahead

investing.com:

Investing.com — Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report and Wednesday’s minutes of the Federal Reserve’s June meeting will be the highlights of a holiday-shortened week. The stock markets go into the second half with a tailwind after strong gains in the first six months of the year. The Reserve Bank of Australia is set to make its latest rate decision while PMI data from China is likely to underscore the need for more stimulus measures

1. Nonfarm payrolls

Friday’s U.S. employment report will be the main event, with economists expecting the economy to have added 200,000 jobs in June.

In May, the economy added a far larger than forecast 339,000 jobs, although an uptick in the unemployment rate to a seven-month high of 3.7% indicated that labor market conditions were easing.

Signs of continued strength in the labor market could underline a view that has helped boost markets this year: that the U.S. economy can avoid a severe recession despite the Fed’s aggressive tightening.

«The labor market is probably going to end up proving to be the big catalyst for what may happen market-wise and also monetary policy-wise,» Omar Aguilar, chief executive officer and chief investment officer of Schwab Asset Management told Reuters.

Ahead of Friday’s jobs report, markets will get updates on other areas of the labor market with data on private sector hiring from ADP, JOLTS job openings and weekly unemployment claims.

2. Fed minutes

The Fed on Wednesday is to publish the minutes of its June 13-14 meeting when it held rates steady after 10 straight rate hikes, but indicated that two more increases are coming this year, including one widely expected in July.

On Friday a gauge of inflation that is closely followed by the U.S. central bank