Treasury unease over fears of No 10 U-turn on national insurance hike
The Treasury is becoming increasingly alarmed that Boris Johnson may be preparing to scrap the national insurance rise in a desperate attempt to placate rightwing Tory MPs as he fights to save his job.
The Guardian understands Rishi Sunak has privately stressed to MPs that the tax rise must go ahead as planned – with one frontbencher who has met him in recent days speculating the chancellor’s position could become untenable if Johnson seeks to overrule him.
Treasury aides claim the embattled prime minister has not yet raised the prospect of cancelling or delaying the £12bn tax rise, with Johnson saying “there’s been no discussion at any level”.
Yet speaking in Wales on Thursday, the prime minister again refused to commit to pressing ahead with the 1.25 percentage point rise in national insurance contributions (NICs), which will be badged a “health and social care levy”.
Johnson said it was “absolutely vital” to find the money, saying: “We have to fund the Covid backlogs, we have to fix social care. Every penny will go to that end.” But when asked to confirm explicitly that the increase would go ahead as planned, he declined to do so.
One person with knowledge of the thinking in No 10 said there were no firm plans yet to change course on NICs – but predicted that Johnson would do so if he faced a vote of no confidence.
They said: “He’s shown enough leg now to make people stick with him on the right. Whether he actually does it or not will depend on whether he thinks he needs to do it to win the vote.”
Kwasi Kwarteng told the BBC on Thursday that there would be “no U-turn” on the rise.
The business secretary said: “We’re totally committed to funding the NHS, clearing the backlog of the NHS, and also funding social care and the way
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