U.S. economy again leads the world, IMF says

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Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. The U.S. is increasingly pulling ahead of the world’s advanced economies, with a surge of investment paying off in higher productivity and wages.

The International Monetary Fund highlights those divergent paths in its latest global scorecard, released Tuesday. In what has become something of a trend, the IMF upgraded the outlook for both U.S. and global growth, though more for the former.

The IMF projects U.S. gross domestic product to expand 2.5% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier—half a percentage point higher than a July forecast, which itself was an upgrade from a prior estimate. U.S.

output rose 3.2% in 2023. That would be the fastest among the Group of Seven major advanced economies. Global output is now projected to grow 3.3% this year, a smidgen above the prior estimate.

Focusing just on wealthy nations, the U.S. is increasingly ahead. Advanced economies as a whole are expected to expand 1.9% this year after growing 1.7% last year.

For 2025, the IMF projects the U.S. to grow 1.9%, versus 1.7% for all advanced economies and 3.1% for the global economy. China, the world’s second-largest economy, is expected to post 4.5% growth this year—a slight downgrade from a prior estimate—and 4.7% in 2025, after expanding 5.4% last year.

The euro area’s economy is expected to grow 1.2% this year and 1.3% next year, after expanding 0.2% last year. The IMF attributed the latest boost in the U.S. outlook to higher nonresidential investment and stronger consumer spending, which is being supported by rising real, or inflation-adjusted, wages.