UAW Deal Shows Unions Are Winning. How Long Will It Last?

livemint.com:

The United Auto Workers’ tentative deals with Detroit automakers mark the latest union victory in a year of multiplying strikes and sizable gains in a robust labor market. The agreements could embolden other unions to take aggressive approaches to contract negotiations and fuel more strikes in coming months—as long as the economy stays strong.

If growth cools and unemployment rises, however, as many economists forecast, workers’ momentum could chill and tip the balance of power back toward employers. “If there’s a recession or if the labor market gets loose again, will that interfere?" said Susan Schurman, a professor of labor studies at Rutgers University, referring to unions’ efforts.

“History would predict that it would, but history has not been a good predictor in the last three years." Labor shortages since the pandemic hit in 2020 gave both unionized and nonunion workers more leverage than they had enjoyed in decades, driving big boosts in pay and benefits. Union workers, however, have seen slower compensation growth than their nonunion counterparts because it takes time for multiyear union contracts to come up for renewal.

Wages and benefits for union workers rose 3.8% in the July-through-September period from a year before, compared with a 4.4% gain for nonunion workers, according to the Labor Department. One factor fueling unions’ demands is that they have seen pay rise faster for chief executive officers than for workers since the pandemic, said Kate Bronfenbrenner, a professor at Cornell University’s School of Industrial and Labor Relations.

In the auto industry, CEOs now make about 300 times what rank-and-file workers make. Strikes increase as unions see them work More than 300,000 union members have walked