Ukraine will be the business opportunity of the decade

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. President Donald Trump and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky met in Davos, Switzerland on Thursday to discuss an end to Russia’s war. No concrete plans were drawn up, but both leaders emerged optimistic about their progress.

Attention should now turn to what peace might bring—not just for security, but for business. When the fighting stops, the most promising opportunities for U.S. companies won’t be in Russia, but in Ukraine.

At first glance, Russia might seem the more attractive market. It has 140 million people, a $2.2 trillion economy, and vast natural resources. But even after hostilities subside, political and commercial risks will remain high and the range of investment opportunities therefore narrow.

Ukraine’s outlook is far brighter. In terms of real gross domestic product, Ukraine’s economy is still more than 20% below its prewar level. But once a durable cease-fire takes hold, it will become one of the world’s most dynamic emerging economies.

In the immediate aftermath of the war, Ukraine will become the site of the largest reconstruction project since World War II. The World Bank estimates more than $500 billion will be spent in the country over the next decade. One of Ukraine’s strongest opportunities will be its defense technology—an area where engagement with Russia, which relies on China for its defense materials, offers little to the U.S.

Ukraine has become a global model for defense technology innovation. Ukrainian firms are already partnering with U.S. companies to develop prototypes of one-way, long-range unmanned aerial systems.