When will the stock market stop falling?

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. The positivity that investors felt at the start of 2026 has been replaced by negativity. The fact that the Nifty started the year at an all-time high has been forgotten.

Sentiment has changed significantly in the last few weeks, and the market seems to be in a downtrend. The Nifty is down about 3% in 2026 so far at the time of writing. The broader market of midcaps and smallcaps has fallen more than the bluechips.

The BSE SmallCap is down almost 8% and the BSE MidCap is down 5%. As mid-caps and small-caps form the bulk of retail investors’ portfolios, the pain has been acute, which, in turn, has badly impacted sentiment on Dalal Street. Is this correction a temporary phase before a bull run, or is there cause for concern? We want to be clear that in this editorial, we are not going to make a prediction as to the timing of the stock market recovery, but we will examine why the stock market is falling and when it might recover.

By and large, there are three broad reasons why the stock market is falling… India and the US have been working on a trade deal for many months, but some issues have become key roadblocks. The imports of Russian oil have been one such point of contention. US President Donald Trump has backed legislation to impose up to 500% tariffs on countries that import Russian oil.

There is no clarity on the status of the trade talks, even though the media has reported that they have reached an advanced stage and many points have been agreed upon. There were reports that the deal would be done by March, but there is neither an assurance nor clarity on that timeline from either side. The markets don’t like uncertainty, especially on such an important issue.