US Recession red flags everywhere: How to survive the economic storm before it's too late

Yet, a recession never came. Optimism grew that the US might pull off a “soft landing.” Now, those hopes are fading.

Consumer expectations have plummeted to their lowest level since 2013, according to The Conference Board. Its senior economist, Stephanie Guichard, warned: “Consumers’ expectations were especially gloomy, with pessimism about future business conditions deepening.”

Meanwhile, a March CNBC Fed Survey puts the probability of a US recession at 36%, up from 23% in January. J.P. Morgan’s chief economist estimates the odds at 40%. Some, like bond expert Jeffrey Gundlach, believe the chances are even higher—50% to 60%.

Trump’s Tariffs and Inflation Worries

One major factor rattling the markets? Tariffs. Since returning to the White House, President Donald Trump has reignited his trade war, imposing fresh duties on imports. Experts warn that these tariffs could fuel inflation and slow economic growth.

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J.P. Morgan’s Bruce Kasman suggests the recession risk could climb past 50% if Trump’s new tariffs take full effect. Economist Clement Bohr from UCLA Anderson went further: “Be careful what you wish for because, if all your wishes come true, you could very well be the author of a deep recession.”

Inflation remains another headache. The Federal Reserve now projects core inflation at 2.8% in 2025, up from an earlier forecast of 2.5%. Growth expectations have been slashed to just 1.7%, which, excluding the 2020 COVID-19 crisis, would be the weakest expansion since 2011.

How to Prepare Financially

If the US is heading for a downturn, what should consumers do? Financial experts offer these key strategies:

1. Pay Down High-Interest Debt

With credit card interest rates averaging 24.2%, debt is a