View: Lok Sabha elections will determine the state of the economy this year, not the other way around

The 'before' picture would show you an oversized individual, while the 'after' picture would feature the same person but with a perfect physique, thanks to whatever potion or gym was being advertised. Or, you could have an acne-scarred face magically transformed into a blemish-free one. No prizes for guessing what the messaging was all about.

It's a bit like that when it comes to reading the tea leaves regarding the economy in 2024.

There is a 'before' and an 'after' image, with one notable difference. While the 'before' (read: pre-election) picture of the economy is reasonably clear, there's no telling what the 'after', post-election picture would be like.

It depends on the election outcome. Consequently, any prediction regarding the state of the economy in 2024 must, inevitably, consist of two (almost neat) halves.

A clear 'before' picture, followed by a blurred one 'after'.

Let me start with the easy 'before' picture. The economy is on a roll, with growth in the first half of the fiscal year, ending March, clocking 7.7%, according to GDP data released in November 2023. 'A star performer accounting for more than 16% of global growth this year,' is how IMF describes India in its just-concluded Article 4 consultation report.

The problem is with the 'after' picture.

There's no knowing for sure. Both BJP and the Opposition will try to sell you a great 'after' picture. They will promise a vast improvement over the 'before' one, provided you vote for them.

What is the ordinary citizen to believe? And there's the problem again: there's no telling for sure.