View: Where the needle has, and hasn’t, shifted prior to the upcoming state polls and the Big One

economictimes.indiatimes.com:

India's five-yearly election calendar, there is an accretion in drama, rhetoric and freewheeling speculation. The coming months will see two sets of elections — a quintet of states will vote this winter, and the next Lok Sabha will be decided in April-May 2024. A major news event in recent weeks has been the structuring of a new platform of 26 opposition parties, the Indian National Developmental, Inclusive Alliance, or INDIA.

The acronym is undoubtedly clever and catchy. It has captured media attention and spooked BJP into a somewhat puzzling overreaction. Nevertheless, voters will not eventually be asked to vote for a collective called INDIA.

They will be approached by constituent parties in different states, with different symbols. A smart name and its electoral efficacy are separate things. The metric of success or failure of the members of this alliance lies elsewhere.

The general election of 2024 will reflect the Indian voter's hopes and anxieties. Domestically and internationally, its result will influence business and investment decisions, and geopolitical calibration. Given this, it would be prudent to distinguish among political activity, electoral competitiveness and outcome risk.

For the moment, the first two appear heightened, not the third. Put simply, Prime Minister Narendra Modi remains an overwhelming favourite to win another term. The needle has not shifted in that regard.

So, what has shifted, and what is the current state of play? Let us begin with the state elections of November-December. There is talk of these elections affecting the 'mood' and 'momentum' for the parliamentary contest. These are intangible and non-specific assessments that are impossible to validate.