

Vijay L. Bhambwani's Ticker: Bulls are on the ropes
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. 'Ticker’ is a weekly newsletter by Vijay L. Bhambwani. Subscribe to Mint's newsletters to get them directly in your email inbox. Dear reader, Last week, I wrote the markets were precariously poised as bulls appeared hesitant about lending aggressive buying support on dips.
As I have written in my past articles, the cost of funds has also played a part in the decline. Leveraged traders are now faced with the prospects of outsized losses due to rollover costs and the cost of funds. Dick Stoken has written books on this aspect of the markets, which I urge my readers to read.
The MWPL exhibited telltale signs of trouble that loomed over the markets. I have written often that high MWPL is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it showed buy-and-hold traders were initiating bigger trades, and on the other, the risk of a crowded exit rose exponentially in case any negative news emerged.
That is precisely what happened last week. Many stocks displayed MWPL readings, which hit multi-quarter lows. Traders simply surrendered their positions once the margin calls (mark-to-market / notional loss) payments could not be fulfilled.
MWPL will continue to be a reliable weather vane for traders. Here is a video that explains how to interpret this extremely potent study. The markets are now in a phase where “overhead supply" will be a substantial hurdle for any upsides.
So many retail traders are trapped in long positions initiated at higher levels that upsides will run into a volley of selling. Only after this overhead supply is completely absorbed will a fresh upthrust commence. Will strong hands buy in a hurry or wait for the retail investor to lose patience and capitulate out of fear and frustration? If
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