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livemint.com / 4 months ago
livemint.com / 4 months ago
Vijay L. Bhambwani's Ticker: Nifty in blue sky territory
Dear reader,Happy New Year!Last week, I wrote monthly derivatives expiry and calendar year-end could cap gains in the markets, which otherwise showed signs of optimism. Read that piece here. The Nifty managed to test new highs and is now in blue sky territory.
This is the zone where the traded security is at a lifetime high, and therefore every buyer is in the money. Which means there is nearly a zero probability of distress selling by losing traders. Routine profit taking can occur, however.
Traded volumes were subdued, as expected, due to the holiday season.Public sector undertakings experienced a significant rise in their stock prices during the week. This is something I have been advocating week after week. Banking and financial sector stocks rose more than the broader market average due to their sheer weightage.
Unless banking stocks rally, there can be no sustainable rally in the broader markets.Bullion witnessed above-average volatility coupled with profit-taking as I warned you last week. The parabolic rise in prices is likely to witness a routine shakeout as weaker hands exit and stronger hands offer support on declines. This process can take some time, and till then, the short-term outlook can remain clouded.
The long-term (multi-year) story remains intact as the underlying reasons for going long on bullion remain intact. Just do not leverage (buy with borrowed funds) and invite stress upon yourself.Banking and public sector undertaking stocks can remain in the limelight as trader exposure has increased in this segment of the market. The biggest percentage movers on Friday last week are likely to be the ones that attract the most activity.Energy prices remained subdued as I expected.
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