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livemint.com / 3 months ago
livemint.com / 3 months ago
livemint.com / 3 months ago
livemint.com / 3 months ago
Vijay L. Bhambwani's Ticker: Volatility threat can spike this week
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. Dear reader, Please note that I am writing this piece on Saturday, before the budget is presented. Last week, I wrote bulls appeared to be on the ropes.
Yet the markets notched up gains as geopolitical tensions seemed to abate. Iranian leaders sent feelers indicating openness to peace talks to avoid US military action. Russia and Ukraine appeared to be coming to terms with the possibility of negotiating.
With the US dollar index falling last week, emerging markets, including India, received a sentimental boost. Safe-haven buying in bullion peaked on Thursday before crashing on Friday. According to the classic Dow theory of technical analysis, any traded asset that falls 20% is considered to be in bear market territory.
Note that bullion achieved this distinction in one trading session. There is a real risk that the stupendous losses in bullion long positions may spill over into equities, triggering panic sales. I have written in my past articles about the perils of leveraged long positions (purchases with borrowed funds).
Especially noteworthy is the margin-funded (MTF) route by which bullion exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been bought. If you have noticed, bullion ETFs are trading at steep discounts to futures and spot prices. This is because buyers must pay 30% of the value of bullion purchased through MTF and maintain a 30% share of the investment, whereas the broker funds 70%.
With a 30%+ price decline on Friday, the investor's share has fallen to zero. That means a margin call-based system-wide sell-off unless retail buyers replenish their accounts with top-up funds before Sunday morning. Since supply is likely to exceed demand in ETFs, the discount will deepen.
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21.05 / 09:47
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